In what is considered by many to be a down year in movies, one film stands out with the academy set to hand out gold sunday

Film pundits around the world have been saying it throughout the past couple months: “It’s a down year for movies,” “There’s nothing good out this year,” or something of that sort.

And while that may be true in some part, when looking back at the year in film, the thing that stands out is that there was nothing truly great.

But that doesn’t mean this year is a “down” year, as they say.

Call me an optimist, but to expect a masterpiece year in and year out just isn’t realistic. What 2009 brought us is a plethora of good films, a few very good films and that’s about it.

So with the Academy set to hand out its awards Sunday, here’s my take on who will take home the famous Oscar statuettes in all the major categories:

Best Supporting Actress

Nominees – Penelope Cruz for “Nine,” Vera Farmiga and Anna Kendrick for “Up in the Air,” Maggie Gyllenhaal for “Crazy Heart,” and Mo’Nique for “Precious: Based on the Novel Push by Sapphire.”

Breakdown – Mo’Nique has swept every major award for her role as the abusive mother Mary in this riveting, true story. It’s hard to imagine any of the other nominees challenging her, as the emotional star truly takes on a heady role and runs with it. She sure has come a long way since “Phat Girlz.”

Should Win – Mo’Nique.

Will Win – Mo’Nique.

Darkhorse – Cruz

Best Supporting Actor

Nominees – Matt Damon for “Invictus,” “Woody Harrelson for “The Messenger,” Christopher Plummer for “The Last Station,” Stanley Tucci for “The Lovely Bones” and Christoph Waltz for “Inglourious Basterds.”

Breakdown – Much like Mo’Nique, Waltz has been sweeping the awards circuit for his role as Colonel Hans Landa, the witty, relentless Nazi in Quentin Tarantino’s latest film. What is impressive about Waltz’s performance is that it’s his first English-speaking role and his performance is no easy task seeing that Tarentino’s films aren’t exactly heavy on character development.

Should Win – Waltz

Will Win – Waltz

Darkhorses – Damon and Harrelson.

Best Actress

Nominees – Sandra Bullock for “The Blind Side,” Helen Mirren for “The Last Station,” Carey Mulligan for “An Education,” Gabourey Sidibe for “Precious: Based on the Novel Push by Sapphire” and Meryl Streep for “Julie & Julia.”

Breakdown – If Waltz and Mo’Nique are locks for their awards, Best Actress is the exact opposite. We have first-time nominees (Mulligan and Sidibe), past-winners (Mirren and Streep), and a fan-favorite in a box office hit (Bullock). Everyone knows the Academy loves Streep, and Bullock’s win at the Golden Globes may have made her the favorite, but don’t sleep on Mulligan or Sidibe. Much like Marion Cotillard’s win two years ago, the Academy loves to award the underdog and in this case, I think that’s where they’re going to go.

Should Win – Sidibe (edging Mulligan by a hair)

Will Win – Sidibe

Darkhorses – Streep, Mirren

Best Actor

Nominees – Jeff Bridges for “Crazy Heart,” George Clooney for “Up in the Air,” Colin Firth for “A Single Man,” Morgan Freeman for “Invictus” and Jeremy Renner for “The Hurt Locker.”

Breakdown – Bridges has been sweeping the awards circuit, and while Clooney is a legitimate nominee, Freeman’s nomination is almost because of hype and the fact that people love Freeman. But the real winner here is Renner, who plays a complicated role in a film few people saw, and he does so with perfection. You love him, you hate him, you feel sorry for him. It’s a strong performance that has unfortunately been overlooked, but I’m glad the Academy saw enough to at least give him a nomination.

Should Win – Renner

Will Win – Bridges

Darkhorse – Clooney

Best Director

Nominees – Kathryn Bigelow for “The Hurt Locker,” James Cameron for “Avatar,” Lee Daniels for “Precious: Based on the Novel Push by Sapphire,” Jason Reitman for “Up in the Air” and Quentin Tarantino for “Inglourious Basterds.”

Breakdown – A complicated race in which ex-spouses Bigelow and Cameron are competing against each other. While the two have generated all the hype and won all the major awards to date, all five nominees have a legitimate chance of winning in what has become the most debated race of the awards. The Academy loves Cameron, awarding him an Oscar for his last film, “Titanic,” but I could really see this award going in any direction.

Should Win – Bigelow

Will Win – Cameron

Darkhorses – Daniels, Tarantino.

Best Picture

Nominees – “Avatar,” “The Blind Side,” “District 9,” “An Education,” “The Hurt Locker,” “Inglourious Basterds,” “Precious: Based on the Novel Push by Sapphire,” “A Serious Man,” “Up” and “Up in the Air.”

Breakdown – For the first time in its history, the Academy has expanded its Best Picture category from five to 10 films. The reasoning behind the decision was to allow box office hits to stand a better chance of being nominated. The decision paid off as “Avatar,” “The Blind Side,” “District 9” and “Up,” were all among the highest-grossing films of the year. The problem is that, aside from “Avatar,” the other films stand just about as good a chance of taking home the Oscar as I do for my five-minute film I made in my basement. There are six legitimate nominees here and the race is wide-open, with “The Hurt Locker” and “Avatar” out front thanks to some major award wins early in the season. The Academy has been known to surprise, but it’s hard to imagine another nominee winning.

Should Win – “The Hurt Locker”

Will Win – “The Hurt Locker”

Darkhorses – “Inglourious Basterds,” (the Academy loves Tarantino) and “A Serious Man” (the Academy loves the Coen Brothers).

Collin Whitchurch can be reached at 581-7944 or [email protected].