Column: Updated look at presidential race as election nears

Marguerite McHale

Election season is approaching us, and it’s time to choose between our current POTUS, or our former Vice President. On November 3rd, our country decides the POTUS for the next four years of our country’s journey with our votes. With every news source trying to calculate the outcome, voters are left still confused and uneasy about what’s to come.

Everyone’s asking, “who will win,” and political scientists have been searching for the answer. CNN’s “Poll of Polls” taken from Fox News, Monmouth University, CNN/SSRS, Quinnipiac University, and Grinnell College polls predicts the vote to stand at 51% for Joe Biden, and 43% for Donald Trump. This would put Biden as our next POTUS, which seems to be the trend among election forecasts across major news sources.

NBC’s “Road to 270” predicts that Biden will receive 290 electoral votes, while they predicted Trump receiving 163. Reuters puts the polling average at 51% for Biden and 40% for Trump, which was factored into the CNN “Poll of Polls”.

Fox News’ poll puts Biden ahead at 51% and Trump at 46%, saying close to what other news sources seem to be reporting. FiveThirtyEight gives us a full election forecast giving Biden a win 76 of 100 simulated elections and Trump will win 24 in 100 simulated elections. They even predict Florida as a blue vote this year.

The New York Times’ “Paths to 270” report that Trump will need to win some states currently leaning towards Biden to pull a win this election season. They predict that if the 2016 results swing over to this election Trump may be able to take the win. Otherwise they think that Biden is likely to win the election this year. Across all these major news outlets, Biden seems to be ahead in the polls with Trump trailing behind.

Swing states, which can go either way in the election and do not necessarily follow a particular historical pattern of voting for a single party, are crucial in every election. One of the biggest and most important swing states, Florida, predicts Biden will take the state’s electoral votes. This puts Trump’s POTUS campaign in a lesser likely spot to win this election.

Michigan, Ohio, Minnesota, Iowa, Colorado, and Wisconsin are also important states to factor into the election, which Biden is ahead on for the most part. These state’s polling results and predictions across most of all major new sources leave Trump’s win dicier than he had originally expected.


Marguerite McHale is a junior economics and political science major. She can be reached at 581-2812 or [email protected]